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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.