A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
