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Mounting apprehensions exist about the possibility of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Five years later, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed ownership of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and hinted at the desire to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Claims

Amid ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on social media from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on 16 September that efforts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, state television has displayed completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The leader of personnel division of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an discussion that the military was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by the population in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders signed a declaration that the war was finished – a move that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then allies in the country's previous armed struggle in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.