Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
