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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd